Forex Döviz

Nasıl Çalışır

Tam şeffaflığa inanıyoruz. Bu sayfa, tüm teknik göstergeler, temel analiz ve risk yönetimi hesaplamaları dahil, piyasa analizlerimizin tam olarak nasıl oluşturulduğunu açıklar.

Metodolojimiz, tahmin değil veriye dayalı, uygulanabilir piyasa analizleri sunmak için kanıtlanmış teknik analizi gerçek zamanlı ekonomik verilerle birleştirir.

Analiz Oluşturma Genel Bakışı

Her piyasa analizi, birden fazla faktörü değerlendiren sistematik bir analiz süreci aracılığıyla oluşturulur:

60%

Teknik Skor

9 teknik göstergeye dayanır: RSI, MACD, SMA (20/50/200), ATR, Bollinger Bantları, Hacim Analizi, Stokastik, ADX ve RSI Uyumsuzluğu.

20%

Temel Skor

Ekonomik takvim olayları etki değerlendirmesi. 2 saat içindeki yüksek etkili olaylar sermayeyi korumak için DİKKAT sinyalleri tetikler.

10%

Risk/Getiri Skoru

ATR tabanlı stop loss ve kar al seviyelerinden hesaplanır, ayrıca optimal giriş noktaları için Bollinger Bandı pozisyon analizi içerir.

10%

Trend Skoru

Uzun vadeli, orta vadeli ve kısa vadeli trendleri belirlemek için SMA hizalaması (20, 50, 200) kullanan çok zaman dilimli trend analizi.

Overall Score Formula:

Overall Score = (Technical × 0.6) + (Fundamental × 0.2) + (Risk/Reward × 0.1) + (Trend × 0.1)

Signal Type: BUY (score ≥ 6, technical > 5), SELL (score ≥ 6, technical < 5), HOLD (4 ≤ score < 6), AVOID (high-impact event within 2h)

Technical Indicators Explained

RSI

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Period: 14 | Overbought: 70+ | Oversold: 30-

Calculation Method: Wilder's Smoothing

RSI measures momentum by comparing the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses. We use Wilder's exponential smoothing method (not simple moving average) for more accurate readings.

RS = Average Gain / Average Loss
RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS))

Signal Impact:

  • RSI < 30 (Oversold): +2 to technical score → Potential BUY signal
  • RSI > 70 (Overbought): -2 to technical score → Potential SELL signal
  • RSI 30-40: +1 to technical score
  • RSI 60-70: -1 to technical score
MACD

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)

Fast EMA: 12 | Slow EMA: 26 | Signal: 9

Calculation:

MACD Line = EMA(12) - EMA(26)
Signal Line = EMA(9) of MACD Line
Histogram = MACD Line - Signal Line

Signal Impact:

  • Histogram > 0: +1.5 to technical score → Bullish momentum
  • Histogram < 0: -1.5 to technical score → Bearish momentum
  • MACD > Signal: +1 to technical score
  • MACD < Signal: -1 to technical score
SMA

Simple Moving Averages

Short-term: 20 | Medium-term: 50 | Long-term: 200

Trend Analysis:

  • Price > SMA 200: +2 to technical score → Long-term uptrend
  • Price < SMA 200: -2 to technical score → Long-term downtrend
  • Price > SMA 50: +1 to technical score
  • Price > SMA 20: +0.5 to technical score

Multi-Timeframe Trend:

We analyze three timeframes: Short-term (SMA 20), Medium-term (SMA 50), and Long-term (SMA 200). When all three align in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.

ATR

ATR (Average True Range)

Period: 14

Purpose: Measures market volatility

ATR is used to calculate dynamic stop loss and take profit levels based on current market volatility. Higher ATR = more volatile market = wider stops.

Stop Loss & Take Profit Calculation:

BUY: SL = Entry - (ATR × 2), TP = Entry + (ATR × 3)
SELL: SL = Entry + (ATR × 2), TP = Entry - (ATR × 3)
HOLD/AVOID: Neutral levels (equal distance above/below entry)
Risk/Reward Ratio = |TP - Entry| / |Entry - SL|

Entry Price: Always from last quote (bid/ask) API, NOT candle close
This ensures all timeframes use the same entry price for the same pair

BB

Bollinger Bands

Period: 20 | Standard Deviations: 2

Calculation:

Middle Band = SMA(20)
Upper Band = SMA(20) + (2 × Standard Deviation)
Lower Band = SMA(20) - (2 × Standard Deviation)

Signal Impact:

  • Price at Lower Band (position < 0.1): +1 to technical score → Oversold, potential bounce
  • Price at Upper Band (position > 0.9): -1 to technical score → Overbought, potential pullback
  • Used in Risk/Reward calculation: Buying near support or selling near resistance adds +2 to R/R score
V

Volume Analysis

Compares current volume to 20-period average

Confirmation Logic:

  • STRONG: Price move with volume > 1.2× average → +1.5 to technical score
  • DIVERGENCE: Price move with volume < 0.8× average → -1 to technical score (warning)
  • Unusual Spike: Volume > 2× average → Additional confirmation

High volume confirms price movements. Low volume during price moves suggests weak momentum and potential reversals.

STO

Stochastic Oscillator

%K Period: 14 | %D Period: 3

Calculation:

%K = ((Close - Lowest Low) / (Highest High - Lowest Low)) × 100
%D = SMA(%K, 3)

Signal Impact:

  • Both RSI and Stochastic oversold: +1 to technical score → Strong BUY signal
  • Both RSI and Stochastic overbought: -1 to technical score → Strong SELL signal
  • %K > %D (bullish crossover): +0.5 to technical score
ADX

ADX (Average Directional Index)

Period: 14 | Measures trend strength (0-100)

Trend Strength Classification:

  • STRONG: ADX > 25 → +1.5 to technical score
  • MODERATE: ADX 20-25 → +0.5 to technical score
  • NO_TREND: ADX < 20 → -0.5 to technical score (ranging market warning)

Direction:

  • +DI > -DI: +0.5 to technical score → Bullish direction
  • -DI > +DI: -0.5 to technical score → Bearish direction
DIV

RSI Divergence Detection

Lookback Period: 20 candles

Divergence Types:

  • Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower low, RSI makes higher low → +1 to +2 to technical score
  • Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher high, RSI makes lower high → -1 to -2 to technical score
  • Strong divergence (RSI < 40 for bullish, RSI > 60 for bearish): Double impact

Divergence is a powerful reversal signal indicating potential trend changes. It occurs when price and RSI move in opposite directions.

Fundamental Analysis

Economic Calendar Integration

We monitor economic events from major forex countries and assess their impact on currency pairs. Each event has an Impact Level (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW volatility) that indicates expected market volatility, and a Trading Risk Level (EXTREME/HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) that indicates the risk of trading during that time:

Impact vs Risk:

  • Impact Level (shown as "Impact: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW"): Expected market volatility/pip movements from the event
  • Risk Level (shown as "EXTREME/HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW Risk"): Risk level when trading during that event
  • High-impact events often have high risk, but some medium-impact events can also be risky depending on market conditions

EXTREME Risk Events

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)
  • Interest Rate Decisions
  • Fed Funds Rate Announcements

Impact: -3 to fundamental score, triggers AVOID signal if within 2 hours

HIGH Risk Events

  • CPI (Consumer Price Index)
  • Inflation Reports
  • High Volatility Events

Impact: -2 to technical score, reduces confidence

MEDIUM Risk Events

  • GDP Reports
  • Retail Sales
  • Medium Volatility Events

Impact: Neutral, monitor closely

LOW Risk Events

  • PMI Data
  • Low Volatility Events
  • Minor Economic Indicators

Impact: +2 to fundamental score (safe trading conditions)

Event Timing Rules:

  • High-impact event within 2 hours → Signal changes to AVOID (confidence = 0)
  • High-impact events in next 24 hours → -3 to fundamental score, warnings added
  • No high-impact events → +2 to fundamental score

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Based on event analysis, we provide clear trading advice:

🚫

AVOID Trading

Triggered by: NFP, Interest Rate Decisions, Fed Funds announcements

  • Close all positions before release
  • Wait 30-60 minutes after for stability
  • Expected impact: 100-200+ pip moves
⚠️

CAUTION Required

Triggered by: CPI, GDP, High Volatility events

  • Reduce position sizes by 50%
  • Use wider stop losses
  • Expected impact: 30-80 pip moves
👁️

MONITOR Closely

Triggered by: Medium Volatility events

  • Trade with normal risk management
  • Watch price action during release
  • Expected impact: 15-40 pip moves
✅

OPPORTUNITY

Triggered by: Low Volatility events, no major news

  • Safe to trade during release
  • Good for scalping strategies
  • Expected impact: 5-15 pip moves

Confidence Score Calculation

Confidence scores range from 40% to 95% and indicate the strength of our signal recommendation:

Base Confidence: 50%

Technical Score Contribution: ±25%

Formula: (technicalScore - 5) × 5

Fundamental Score Contribution: ±10%

Formula: (fundamentalScore - 5) × 2

Risk/Reward Score Contribution: ±5%

Formula: (riskRewardScore - 5) × 1

Trend Alignment Bonus: ±10%

Long-term: ±5 | Medium-term: ±3 | Short-term: ±2

Confidence = 50 + (Technical - 5) × 5 + (Fundamental - 5) × 2 + (R/R - 5) × 1 + Trend Alignment
Trend Alignment = Long-term: ±5 | Medium-term: ±3 | Short-term: ±2
Final Confidence = Clamp(Confidence, 40, 95)
Note: AVOID signals have confidence = 0 (overrides calculation)

Risk Management

Stop Loss & Take Profit Calculation

ATR-Based Dynamic Levels:

Instead of fixed pip values, we use ATR (Average True Range) to calculate stop loss and take profit levels that adapt to current market volatility. This ensures stops are neither too tight (causing premature exits) nor too wide (excessive risk).

Stop Loss

BUY: Entry - (ATR × 2)
SELL: Entry + (ATR × 2)

Multiplier: 2× ATR ensures stops are placed beyond normal market noise

Take Profit

BUY: Entry + (ATR × 3)
SELL: Entry - (ATR × 3)

Multiplier: 3× ATR targets realistic profit levels

Risk/Reward Ratio:

R/R = |Take Profit - Entry| / |Entry - Stop Loss|

Minimum acceptable R/R: 1.5:1 | Our default: 1.5:1
HOLD/AVOID signals: R/R = 1.0 (neutral)

Bollinger Band Position Bonus:

  • Buying near Lower Band (support): +2 to Risk/Reward score
  • Selling near Upper Band (resistance): +2 to Risk/Reward score
  • Buying at Upper Band (resistance): -2 to Risk/Reward score (risky)
  • Selling at Lower Band (support): -2 to Risk/Reward score (risky)

Signal Types & Decision Logic

Signal Classification

BUY Signal

Triggered when:

  • Overall Score ≥ 6
  • Technical Score > 5 (bullish indicators)
  • No high-impact events within 2 hours

Direction: STRONG (score ≥ 8) or NEUTRAL (6-8)

SELL Signal

Triggered when:

  • Overall Score ≥ 6
  • Technical Score < 5 (bearish indicators)
  • No high-impact events within 2 hours

Direction: STRONG (score ≥ 8) or NEUTRAL/STRONG (6-8, based on technical score)

HOLD Signal

Triggered when:

  • Overall Score between 4-6 (neutral)
  • Low score (< 4) - market uncertainty
  • Mixed signals from indicators

Direction: NEUTRAL (score 4-6) or WEAK (score < 4)

Note: HOLD signals use neutral SL/TP levels (equal distance above/below entry). UI shows warning instead of trading levels.

AVOID Signal

Triggered when:

  • High-impact event within 2 hours
  • NFP, Rate Decisions, Fed Funds
  • Confidence: 0% (do not trade)

Direction: NEUTRAL

Important Notes:

  • We prioritize capital preservation: Low scores result in HOLD, not risky contrarian trades
  • BUY/SELL signals include Entry, Stop Loss, Take Profit, and Risk/Reward ratio
  • HOLD/AVOID signals show warning message instead of trading levels (neutral levels calculated but not displayed)
  • Entry Price: Always from last quote (bid/ask) API, NOT from candle close - ensures consistency across timeframes
  • Signals are valid until the next timeframe period (15m: 15 min, 1H: 1 hour, 4H: 4 hours, 1D: 24 hours)
  • Minimum 200 candles required for accurate SMA200 calculation

Veri Kaynakları ve Güncellemeler

Fiyat Verileri

  • Kaynak: Massive.com API
  • Giriş Fiyatı: Son kotasyon (bid/ask orta fiyat), mum kapanışı DEĞİL
  • Neden: Aynı parite için tüm zaman dilimlerinde aynı giriş fiyatını sağlar
  • Güncelleme Sıklığı: Her 15 dakikada bir
  • Zaman Dilimleri: 15d, 1S, 4S, 1G
  • Mum Gereksinimleri: Doğru göstergeler için minimum 200 mum
  • Önbellek: 15 dakika (sinyaller), 30 dakika (fiyatlar)

Ekonomik Takvim

  • Kaynak: RapidAPI Ekonomik Takvim
  • Güncelleme Sıklığı: Her 12 saatte (yaklaşan etkinlikler), 48 saatte (geçmiş etkinlikler)
  • Kapsam: 30 gün ileri + 14 gün geçmiş
  • Ülkeler: ABD, AB, İngiltere, Japonya, Almanya, Fransa, Kanada, Avustralya, Yeni Zelanda, İsviçre
  • Özellikler: Piyasa verileri (Gerçekleşen vs Beklenen), Geçmiş etkinlikler, Parite sayfalarına dahili bağlantılar, URL tabanlı filtreleme
  • Önbellek: 12 saat (yaklaşan), 48 saat (geçmiş)

Yaklaşan etkinlikleri, geçmiş sonuçları ve her etkinlik için işlem stratejilerini görmek için Ekonomik Takvim sayfamızı ziyaret edin.

Supported Pairs & Timeframes

Currency Pairs (14 pairs)

USDTRY

Dolar/TL

EURTRY

Euro/TL

GBPTRY

Sterlin/TL

CHFTRY

İsviçre Frangı/TL

TRYJPY

TL/Yen

AUDTRY

Avustralya Doları/TL

EURUSD

Euro/Dolar

GBPUSD

Sterlin/Dolar

USDJPY

Dolar/Yen

USDCHF

Dolar/İsviçre Frangı

AUDUSD

Avustralya Doları/Dolar

USDCAD

Dolar/Kanada Doları

XAUUSD

Altın (Ons)

XAGUSD

Gümüş (Ons)

Timeframes (4 options)

15m Scalping

Data: 14 days | ~1,344 candles

1H Day Trading

Data: 30 days | ~720 candles

4H Medium-term

Data: 60 days | ~360 candles

1D Swing Trading

Data: 250 days | 250 candles

⚠️ Önemli Feragatname

Analizlerimiz kanıtlanmış teknik analiz yöntemleri ve gerçek zamanlı veriler kullanılarak oluşturulsa da, forex işlemleri önemli risk taşır ve tüm yatırımcılar için uygun olmayabilir.

  • Geçmiş performans gelecekteki sonuçları garanti etmez
  • Her zaman doğru risk yönetimi kullanın (işlem başına %1-2'den fazla risk almayın)
  • Analizlerimiz tavsiye niteliğindedir, finansal tavsiye değildir
  • İşlem yapmadan önce her zaman kendi araştırmanızı ve analizinizi yapın
  • Risk toleransınızı ve finansal durumunuzu göz önünde bulundurun

Bilinçli kararlar vermeniz için metodolojimizde şeffaflık sağlıyoruz. Ancak, işlem kararlarınızdan ve sonuçlarından yalnızca siz sorumlusunuz.

Piyasa Analizlerine Başlamaya Hazır mısınız?

Artık metodolojimizi anladığınıza göre, bilinçli kararlar vermek için canlı piyasa analizlerimizi ve ekonomik takvimi keşfedin.

Canlı Analizleri Görüntüle Ekonomik Takvim